As we move deeper into 2025, Manitoba’s housing market is feeling the impact of global economic uncertainty and trade tensions. If you're looking to buy or refinance in the province, understanding the current trends can help you make confident mortgage decisions.

Economic Headwinds and Opportunities

Manitoba’s economy, while diverse, is facing notable challenges. A slowdown that began in 2024 is projected to deepen into a recession by 2026. About 70% of Manitoba’s exports head to the U.S., and new tariffs are placing pressure on key industries such as food processing and heavy vehicle manufacturing.

Additionally, recent Chinese tariffs on agricultural goods like canola and pork are further straining the province’s export-driven economy. These factors are expected to push the unemployment rate up to 7% by mid-2025.

Real Estate Trends in Manitoba

Despite these economic pressures, Manitoba’s housing market showed strength in 2024, with average home prices growing by 6.3%, driven by low unemployment and strong population growth. However, this trend is expected to reverse. Forecasts indicate a cumulative 5% drop in average home prices by late 2026 as recession sets in and housing demand softens.

On the construction side, housing starts in Manitoba are projected to increase slightly to 11,700 units in 2025, up 1.7% from 2024. This reflects moderate confidence among developers and continuing, albeit slower, population growth.

What This Means for Mortgage Seekers

For buyers, a softening market could offer opportunities to purchase homes at more affordable prices, especially as home values are expected to decline through 2026. For current homeowners, now is a strategic time to consult with a mortgage professional about locking in favourable terms before potential further economic shifts.

Looking Ahead

While the short-term outlook includes economic challenges, Manitoba’s diversified economy positions it well for a rebound. Medium-term prospects are optimistic, supported by innovation in agriculture, renewable energy investments, and efforts to expand trade beyond North America.

Thinking of buying or refinancing in Manitoba? Contact our expert mortgage advisors to navigate today’s market with confidence.

Source: Mortgage Professionals Canada