As we move into the second half of 2025, the question on many Manitobans' minds is: Will mortgage rates come down any further this year?

So far, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has delivered two small rate cuts, followed by a stretch of rate holds—including its most recent decision on July 30, where it again kept the policy rate steady at 2.75%. While economists were split on whether we’d see another reduction this month, the Bank chose caution, pointing to persistent inflation pressures and global uncertainty.

Here’s where things stand in the Manitoba mortgage market and what to expect for the rest of the year.

January–March 2025: Initial Rate Cuts Spark Hope

The year started with some much-needed relief for borrowers:

• January 29, 2025: 25 basis point cut (overnight rate reduced to 3.00%)
• March 12, 2025: Another 25 bp cut (rate lowered to 2.75%)

These early moves were meant to support the slowing economy and help ease borrowing costs.

Impact in Manitoba:
Homeowners with variable-rate mortgages saw small reductions in their interest costs, while fixed rates began to level off. However, affordability remained a challenge due to still-high home prices and qualifying rates.

April–July: Rate Holds Reflect Inflation Concerns

Despite early cuts, the BoC held the rate steady over the next three decisions:

• April 16, 2025: Rate held at 2.75%
• June 4, 2025: No change
• July 30, 2025: Rate held again

The Bank noted that while inflation has cooled from its peak, core inflation remains “sticky,” and global economic risks—especially related to U.S. trade policy—warrant a cautious approach.

Impact in Manitoba:
Fixed mortgage rates have inched lower, but not dramatically. Homebuyers in Manitoba continue to face tight lending conditions, and many are opting to wait for further drops before locking in. Meanwhile, those with variable rates have not seen additional relief since March.

Outlook: Will Rates Drop Again in 2025?

Many economists had predicted up to two more rate cuts this year—but with July’s hold, that forecast may be downgraded to just one more cut, likely in September or October.

What this means for Manitoba borrowers:

• If the Bank cuts again in September (Sep 17), variable-rate borrowers could see some savings.
• Fixed-rate mortgage shoppers may benefit as bond yields have softened, though lenders remain cautious.
• Timing your renewal or refinance is more important than ever—rates may fall, but not dramatically.

Upcoming Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dates (2025)

Here are the remaining dates to watch for this year:

• September 17, 2025
• October 29, 2025 – Includes Monetary Policy Report
• December 10, 2025

These dates could have a direct impact on mortgage rates in Manitoba, especially if economic conditions shift.

Manitoba Mortgage Market Summary

Final Thoughts for Manitoba Borrowers

The Manitoba mortgage market has seen some positive momentum in 2025—but it's moving slower than many hoped. The July rate hold is a clear signal that the Bank of Canada is taking a cautious approach, even as borrowing costs remain high for many families.

If you're planning to buy, renew, or refinance, this is the time to get mortgage advice that reflects where the market is headed—not just where it’s been. As a local Manitoba mortgage brokerage, One Link Mortgage is here to help you explore your options and find a strategy that fits your needs in this evolving rate environment.

Let’s talk about your mortgage options.
Contact our team today for a personalized rate review or pre-approval tailored to the Manitoba market