Mortgage Professionals Canada recently released their third quarter market review on coast-to-coast housing trends. Here are the highlights from the report, The Housing and Mortgage Market Review, for Manitoba:

Manitoba’s economy is feeling the effects of the nationwide slowdown, with GDP growth projected at just 0.5% in 2025 – the weakest in Canada. Early 2025 saw a brief boost from front-loaded U.S. exports, but this momentum is fading as the manufacturing sector faces challenges from U.S. tariffs, Chinese tariffs on canola and pork, ongoing wildfire disruptions, and a high reliance on interprovincial manufacturing exports.

Employment & Housing

• Unemployment is expected to rise to 6.4% in the second half of 2025.
• Average home price in 2025 is forecast at $357,000, up 3.7% from 2024, but prices are expected to start declining in Q3 2025 and continue falling gradually into mid-2026.
• Housing starts are holding steady at 11,600 units in 2025, a modest 0.9% increase from 2024.

Medium-Term Outlook
Despite short-term headwinds, Manitoba’s diverse economy – spanning food, pharmaceuticals, and machinery – is well-positioned for recovery. From 2027-2029, growth is expected to match the national average, with steady population gains and rising housing demand supporting a rebound in home construction.

Key Takeaways for Homebuyers & Investors

• Short-term: Softer prices and rising unemployment may create better buying opportunities for well-prepared buyers.
• Medium-term: Expect a gradual price recovery starting mid-2026 as economic conditions improve.
• Long-term: Manitoba’s housing market should remain more affordable than many other provinces, making it an attractive option for first-time buyers and investors seeking stability.

Whether you’re buying, renewing, or refinancing, it’s important to get mortgage advice based on where the market is going—not just where it’s been. As an award-winning Manitoba mortgage brokerage, One Link Mortgage can help you explore your options and build a strategy that fits your goals in today’s changing rate environment.

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